Several newly released polls—including fresh data published on Friday—show Republican candidates taking early leads in California’s 2026 gubernatorial primary, a surprising twist in a state long dominated by Democrats.
With Democrats fielding a crowded list of contenders, early polling exposes growing concern within the party as the state’s unique jungle primary system could potentially push two Republicans into the general election.
California Democratic Party chair Rusty Hicks expressed confidence, telling Newsweek that the party expects to elect another Democrat in 2026. Meanwhile, California GOP chair Corrin Rankin said recent polling reflects how voters are “tired of decades of failure and corruption by Democrats.”
Why These Poll Numbers Matter
California’s top-two primary system, often called the jungle primary, places every candidate—regardless of party—on a single ballot. Only the two highest-performing candidates advance to the general election.
For Democrats, the danger is clear:
- Too many Democratic candidates could split the party’s large voting bloc.
- Two Republicans could secure the top spots despite the state’s solidly blue history.
- Polls already show two of the top three candidates are Republicans.
Who’s Running?
Republican candidates:
- Steve Hilton
- Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco
Major Democratic candidates:
- Former Rep. Katie Porter
- Former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra
- Former L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa
- Former State Comptroller Betty Yee
- Former Superintendent Tony Thurmond
Others being discussed include Rep. Eric Swalwell and businessman Rick Caruso.
What the Latest Polls Reveal
EMC Research Poll
A recent survey by EMC Research—reported by Punchbowl News—shows:
- Steve Hilton: 20%
- Katie Porter: 16%
- Chad Bianco: 14%
- Eric Swalwell: 11%
The poll sampled 1,000 likely voters between Oct. 22–26, with a ±3.1% margin of error. It indicates a tight race for the crucial second-place spot.
Poll by Ben Tulchin for Villaraigosa
- Bianco: 20%
- Villaraigosa: 19%
- Hilton: 18%
Surveyed 919 likely voters in November, ±3.2% margin of error.
Emerson College Poll
- Hilton: 16%
- Porter: 15%
- Bianco: 11%
Surveyed 900 likely voters (Oct. 20–21), ±3.19% margin of error.
UC Berkeley Poll
- Bianco: 13%
- Porter: 11%
- Becerra: 8%
- Hilton: 8%
Surveyed 8,141 registered voters (Oct. 20–27), ±2% error rate.
Shifts in Campaign Momentum
Although Katie Porter was previously seen as the frontrunner, she has faced backlash after a tense interview incident and resurfacing allegations of mistreatment—issues opponents may use to challenge her momentum.
Vice President Kamala Harris was mentioned as a potential contender but has firmly declined.
Democratic strategist Darry A. Sragow cautioned that polls this early “have no relevance,” noting that most Californians still know very little about the large field.
He emphasized that Democrats still hold a major registration advantage, making it possible the general election may end up excluding a Republican entirely.
Reactions From Campaigns and Analysts
Political commentators, strategists, and campaign officials have all offered insights:
Highlights of Public Reactions
- Russell Drew, Democratic commentator, warned that Democrats polling under 5% should consider dropping out to prevent a GOP sweep of the top two spots.
- Jacob Rubashkin (Inside Elections) said the large field of Democratic contenders could create “unpleasant outcomes.”
- Corrin Rankin (California GOP chair) argued that Californians want solutions on affordability, homelessness, and public safety, issues Republicans are emphasizing.
- Rick Gorka, spokesperson for Bianco, said the latest polls show “Sheriff Chad Bianco has momentum.”
- Steve Hilton told Newsweek California voters are “fed up” with 15 years of Democratic rule and want lower electric bills, affordable homes, and $3 gas.
- Porter campaign spokesperson Peter Opitz insisted she remains the “battle-tested fighter” leading Democrats by double digits with strong grassroots backing.
What Comes Next?
The primary election is scheduled for June, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball currently labels the contest Safe Democratic—but that assumes Democrats avoid splitting the vote disastrously.
Fundraising strength, new candidacies, and shifting public opinion will determine whether the party can maintain its longstanding dominance.
California’s 2026 governor’s race is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable contests in recent state history. Early polls show Republicans gaining traction, while Democrats risk diluting their own strength with a crowded field.
As campaigns intensify, fundraising accelerates, and voter awareness grows, both parties are preparing for a competitive and high-stakes primary that could redefine California politics.
