As the 2026 midterm elections draw closer, new polling shows troubling indicators for the Republican Party. A fresh NPR/PBS News/Marist survey of 1,443 adults, conducted from Nov. 10–13, highlights shifting voter sentiment that strongly favors Democrats.
Key findings include:
- Democrats hold a 14-point lead—their biggest edge since 2017—when voters were asked who they would support if the midterms were held today.
- President Trump’s approval sits at 39%, the lowest since immediately after the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack.
- Six in ten Americans blame Trump or congressional Republicans for the recent government shutdown.
- Nearly 60% want Trump to prioritize lowering prices, overshadowing every other issue by a large margin.
Many voters, including previous Trump supporters, expressed frustration over high costs and a lack of connection from political leaders. Nicole Stokes of Dallas, who voted for Trump last year, said rising prices feel ignored, adding, “It’s our pockets that are getting ripped apart.”
Across institutions—from Congress to the media to the Supreme Court—respondents reported little confidence or trust. Wayne Dowdy of Memphis described himself as a “lapsed Democrat” and admitted he feels politically unseen, though he still leans toward Democratic candidates.
Democrats Take the Lead in Congressional Control
Strong Momentum Following Recent Election Wins
Following significant victories across multiple states in this year’s off-year elections, Democrats now lead Republicans 55% to 41% in the generic congressional ballot.
This represents their largest advantage since 2017, mirroring the political climate before the major Democratic gains of 2018.
Independents are leaning heavily Democratic as well, favoring them by 33 points, a stark contrast to the tie recorded before the 2024 elections when Trump reclaimed the White House.
Historical Context of Congressional Ballot Trends
Past midterm results show that Democrats usually need a substantial polling advantage to secure strong gains:
- 2022: Democratic lead of 0–4 points → Democrats lost 9 House seats.
- 2018: Democratic lead of 6–12 points → Democrats gained 40 seats.
- 2014: Republicans led by 5 points → GOP gained 13 seats.
However, because redistricting has reduced the number of competitive seats, large swings like 2018 are less likely.
The Trump Factor: A Heavy Burden for Republicans
Low Approval Ratings
Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 39%, with independents giving him an even lower 24%. Nearly half of all respondents (48%) strongly disapprove of his performance—the highest level of his second term.
Americans rate him poorly on the economy, international affairs, and especially immigration. While Trump often insists immigration is the top national issue, voters disagree.
- 57% say lowering prices should be his top priority
- Only 16% choose immigration
Even within his party, 40% of Republicans say the economy should come first.
Support Among His Base Remains Strong
Despite these declines, nine in ten Republicans still approve of Trump’s job performance. But some of his supporters express dissatisfaction with Republicans in Congress, saying leaders fail to represent everyday Americans.
Confidence in Institutions Hits New Lows
Widespread Distrust Across Government and Media
The poll reveals deep dissatisfaction with nearly every major institution:
- Congress: 80% have little or no confidence
- Media: 75%
- Democratic Party: 71%
- Republican Party: 65%
- Supreme Court: 62%
- Presidency: 61%
Democrats face challenges with their own base—only 57% of Democrats express strong confidence in their party, compared to 80% of Republicans who feel similarly about the GOP.
Deepening Partisan Divides
Perceptions of Dishonesty and Closed-Mindedness
Political polarization remains intense. More than eight in ten Democrats and Republicans view the opposing party as closed-minded, and majorities also believe the other side is dishonest.
Independents lean more favorably toward Democrats:
- 54% say Republicans are mostly dishonest
- More than 60% say Democrats are mostly honest
- Nearly 70% say Republicans are mostly closed-minded
- A 53% majority consider Democrats mostly open-minded
The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist survey paints a challenging picture for Republicans as the 2026 midterms approach. With Democrats holding a sizable advantage in congressional preference, Trump’s approval sinking, and widespread distrust toward institutions, the political environment remains highly unstable.
Independents shifting toward Democrats further amplifies the GOP’s difficulties. While a year remains before voters head to the polls, the current landscape suggests Democrats enter the election cycle with momentum—though redistricting and ongoing national issues may shape outcomes significantly.
