A series of newly released surveys shows Republican candidates gaining an early edge in California’s 2026 governor’s race — a surprising shift in a state where Democrats traditionally dominate statewide contests. The polling reflects a volatile political landscape shaped by a crowded Democratic field and a top-two primary system that could reshape the race months before voting begins.
GOP Candidates Break Ahead in Tight Early Polls
Multiple polls released over the past several weeks — including one published Friday — show Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco outperforming several high-profile Democrats in the early stages of the race.
The findings come as Democratic leaders attempt to manage concerns over a fractured field.
Rusty Hicks, chair of the California Democratic Party, told Newsweek the party still expects to elect another Democrat as governor in 2026.
Meanwhile, Corrin Rankin, chair of the California GOP, said the numbers signal that Californians are “tired of decades of failure and corruption by Democrats.”
California operates under a top-two “jungle primary”, meaning all candidates — regardless of party — compete on the same primary ballot. The top two vote-getters advance to the general election. In past cycles, Democrats have worried that a large field could split votes among their party, creating an opening for two Republican candidates to advance.
Who’s Running?
On the Republican side, two prominent candidates have officially declared:
- Steve Hilton, political commentator and business figure
- Sheriff Chad Bianco, a well-known conservative law enforcement leader
The Democratic field is far larger, including:
- Katie Porter, former U.S. Representative
- Xavier Becerra, former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary
- Antonio Villaraigosa, former Mayor of Los Angeles
- Betty Yee, former State Comptroller
- Tony Thurmond, former State Superintendent of Public Instruction
Other potential candidates — such as Representative Eric Swalwell and businessman Rick Caruso — have yet to confirm their decisions.
Why This Matters for Democrats
The crowded Democratic field poses the risk of vote splitting, increasing the chance that two Republicans could advance to November’s general election — locking Democrats out of the governor’s race in a deep-blue state.
Recent polling suggests this scenario is possible.
What the Latest Polls Show
EMC Research Poll
Conducted Oct. 22–26 among 1,000 likely voters
Margin of error: ±3.1%
- Hilton: 20%
- Porter: 16%
- Bianco: 14%
- Swalwell: 11%
- Others: single digits
This poll shows Porter and Bianco in a tight fight for the second slot.
Ben Tulchin (Villaraigosa campaign) Poll
Surveyed 919 likely voters in November
Margin of error: ±3.2%
- Bianco: 20%
- Villaraigosa: 19%
- Hilton: 18%
Emerson College Poll
Surveyed 900 likely voters Oct. 20–21
Margin of error: ±3.19%
- Hilton: 16%
- Porter: 15%
- Bianco: 11%
UC Berkeley Poll
Surveyed 8,141 registered voters Oct. 20–27
Sampling error: ±2%
- Bianco: 13%
- Porter: 11%
- Becerra: 8%
- Hilton: 8%
Growing Tensions Inside Both Parties
The race’s early volatility is being shaped not only by polling but by unfolding campaign controversies.
Porter, once considered the Democratic frontrunner, recently faced backlash after threatening to leave an interview. The moment revived earlier allegations about her management style.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris, once floated as a contender, has confirmed she will not run.
Meanwhile, political strategists warn that polls this early are only snapshots.
Democratic strategist Darry A. Sragow told Newsweek these numbers “have no relevance,” suggesting most voters have limited familiarity with the candidates. Despite Republicans polling well, he noted the state’s large Democratic voter registration advantage makes a GOP general election win unlikely.
What Campaigns Are Saying
- Corrin Rankin, CA GOP chair: Voters are “tired of failure and corruption” and want solutions on public safety, affordability, and homelessness.
- Bianco campaign spokesman Rick Gorka: “Sheriff Chad Bianco has all the momentum… Californians are eager for a new way forward.”
- Steve Hilton: Says voters want “real business and government reform,” lower utility bills, affordable housing, and a plan for economic relief.
- Katie Porter’s team: Claims she remains the strongest Democratic candidate, with grassroots support and double-digit leads over other Democrats.
- Antonio Villaraigosa’s campaign strategist Josh Pulliam: Welcomed the possibility of Swalwell entering the race.
Political analysts on social media have also urged lower-polling Democrats to drop out to avoid splitting the vote.
What Happens Next?
California’s primary will take place in June 2026.
As of now, Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates the general election “Safe Democratic,” though strategists admit the primary could become highly unpredictable.
For ongoing election updates, voters can follow official announcements from the California Secretary of State and candidate filings through the California Legislature.
